How to Think About American Collapse Now (or, Macrointelligence)

Hi! How’s everyone? Welcome back old friends, welcome new ones, and here’s a little Snowy hug for the weekend.

Today we’re going to discuss what’s going to happen over The Next Five Years. In American collapse. For the world. I’m going to teach you how to think about it well, so you have more clarity. Along the way, we’re going to arrive at some conclusions. And I’m going to teach you a skill, or at least begin to, which I call Macrointelligence.

Many thanks to all those who've booked sessions, it's been amazing to meet you guys in person!!

Macro and Microinstitutions, or How to Think About Situations Like American Collapse

America is now moving into the implosive phase of collapse. That’s just what it sounds like, by the way. Doesn’t it feellike things are imploding by the day? Your gut is correct, and I always teach you to trust your intuition. 

Let’s formalize that a little bit. What does “the implosive phase” mean? The way I think about is to distinguish between Micro and Macroinstitutions. We just talked about Macro Risk versus Micro Risk, remember? This is a counterpart or analogue.

Microinstitutions are what go in the early phases of collapse. They get corroded, corrupted, or simply dismantled. And by Microinstitutions I just mean things like, for example, attacks on a single election, or lies destabilizing truth, but not fully eroding it, perhaps, or figures here and there arising as demagogues, and beginning to cause democratic erosion and backsliding.

Macroinstitutions are different. They are the large scale building blocks of civilization itself, or at least in the sense of modernity. They are the pillars of what we consider to be civilized, modern life, and sure, you can debate that philosophically if you want, “are we civilized at all?,” that’s fine, but this isn’t a college seminar, it’s about your life.

Let me give you some examples of Macroinstitutions.

—The sciences
—The arts
—The press
—Democracy as an ongoing project
—Business and commerce
—Trade
—Alliances and partnerships with other countries
—The norms of peace, justice, respect, and dignity
—The rule of law

Perhaps you understand what I mean by now. Microinstitutions are about, for example, a legal precedent or tradition, or maybe even a Supreme Court being partially captured by fanatics and lunatics. But the Macroinstitution above it is the rule of law itself. That’s just a simple example.

Macroinstitutions, or, What’s Going to Be Left After Five Years?

Now. I’m not just trying to make some abstract theoretical point. Rather, this is about your money, finances, career, profession, opportunities, possibilities, life, in the hardest possible way.

Let me make that very clear by asking a question.

What’s going to be left after five years or so of this? What we’ve already seen, and we’re just two months in?

I imagine you’ve often asked yourself that question in recent days and weeks. What I’ve tried to teach you is a framework to help you make sense of it.

So let’s go through some of those Macroinstitutions quickly.

The sciences are already under blazing, withering, absolutely devastating assault. Funding’s been slashed, huge numbers of people have been laid off, those doing cutting edge research on everything from medicine to physics to society and beyond.

What’s going to be left of the Macroinstitution of science after five years?

Let’s think about the press. One of America’s most prestigious papers, The Washington Post, has capitulated in such extreme, bizarre, and disgraceful ways that it doesn’t allow open criticism anymore, it’s new “publisher” himself a disgraced figure in the world of tabloid journalism. 

What’s going to be left of the Macroinstitution of the press after five years?

Let’s think about business. One of the strangest and most head-spinning aspects of this administration is that it’s waging war on capitalism. From the right. Think of how comically, absurdly extreme that is for a moment. As a result, the stock market’s sliding, and on “Liberation Day,” as we discussed, when “trillions in tariffs on the whole world” go into effect (their words, not mine), the results are likely to be catastrophic, whether we see a sudden crash or a slow-motion train wreck.

Americans aren’t used to this one in particular. A President…on the right…who’s so off the charts…he’s tanking the stock market? Millions are worried about their savings and retirements, and they should be, because this doesn’t end here (by the way, please consider this an open invitation to book a session if you want some guidance from me, don’t Sink With The Ship.)

What’s going to be left of the Macroinstitution of business and commerce after five years? At the rate things are going, people will be wiped out, and so will much of American capitalism.

Let’s discuss the rule of law. Already, there’s a Constitutional Crisis brewing, if not already happening. The administration is openly and happily flouting various orders from judges, or trying to hide its implosive efforts, or obscuring the effects of its actions. It’s not exactly touting the rule of law, is it? It’s more intent on showing how weak, supine, and easy to break the rule of law really is. What do we do with a President, after all, who won’t obey court rulings? Nobody knows, but it’s not exactly like anyone’s going to put him in jail the next day like they’d do for any other person, which is the point.

So what’s going to be left of the rule of law after five years of this?

Going From Micro to Macro Breakdown, or America’s Future

I’ve taught you all the above so you have a way to think about what is happening right now. Because you have many difficult decisions to make. From finances and money to career and profession to life and where and how to live it.

Let me now formalize all the above a little bit more. What I’ve tried to give you is a way to think well about social collapse, especially this acute phase of it.

In this phase, we are

—Moving from Microinstitutional breakdown…
—To Macroinstitutional breakdown…
—Which is about the basic building blocks of civilized, modern societies
—Which include the sciences, the arts, the rule of law, democracy, the press, and many, many more
—This is the crossing of a very serious, crucial, and dangerous threshold
—And worse, Macroinstitutional breakdown is now widespread.

That’s a lot. Just sit with it so that you really understand it.

What is important to understand next is that Macroinstitutional breakdown has consequences. Incredibly severe consequences.

The Consequences of Macro Breakdown

What are they? They include any and all of the following.

—A society without vibrant business and commerce becomes much poorer, very quickly, and cannot enjoy growth over any time horizon 
—A society without thriving sciences loses its capabilities in innovation and leadership, and is poised for long-term stagnation 
—A society without a functioning rule of law is one poised for long-term wealth destruction and capital flight, because of course nobody’s investments, from domestic retirees or everyday professional to large-scale international investors, are safe anymore
—A society without a functioning press is poised for normative breakdown, which means that norms of truth, peace, and coexistence soon enough break down further, as disinformation and misinformation become endemic, and information gaps arise that leave people not just informed but powerless 
—A society that is becoming an enemy of global trade becomes poorer very quickly, often breathtakingly so, because nobody in history has ever made a functioning “autarky,” that’s a word in economics for “a closed off society that tries to do everything by itself.
—A society that gives up on friendly alliances and partnerships soon enough finds itself a pariah, whose people are looked on with scorn by the rest of the world, and aren’t particularly welcome anywhere

Let me say it again. The consequences of Macroinstitutional breakdown are incredibly severe. And this is the point America’s at right now.

That is so important for you to grasp that I’m going to summarize it. You must understand all this in a deep way if you want to make it out of this mess.

The Next Five Years, or what Macroinstitutional Breakdown Means

Macroinstitutional breakdown makes societies:

—Poorer, very fast, and that means the people in them.
—They tend to see their savings and incomes and assets erode, much faster than they could have imagined before the implosive phase 
—It makes societies flouting their isolationism global pariahs, laughingstocks, and embarrassments
—Whose people aren’t welcome elsewhere, because they are ultimately held responsible, rightly or wrongly, for…
—The costs that such societies inflict on those around them and the world, from aggression and hostility, to trade wars and tariffs, to the constant, tiresome hectoring of demagogues and so on
—And ultimately, it makes such societies, even if they are as rich and powerful as America, lose their edge in innovation, creativity, commerce, business, trust, respect, all that makes a society wealthy to begin with.

Now. You must think all that over carefully.

I am not answering the questions I raised earlier for you: what will be left of Macroinstitutions over the next five years. I think you must begin to answer it for yourself.

I can give you my answer, of course, to help you arrive at your own conclusion. 

My answer is very simple.

Not much will be left of any of these Macroinstitutions.

Perhaps there’s a scenario in which benevolent aliens arrive, or some other fantasy, and put an end to all this madness, but on the current trajectory? I can’t really see how any of America’s Macroinstitutions survive intact. That doesn’t mean they disappear, no, don’t imagine Mad Max, but it does mean that they don’t function, barely function, or dysfunction, which is doing the opposite of what they’re supposed to.

You are most welcome to share your answer in the comments if you like, or just reflect on it yourself.

Let me tell you now why I’m teaching you all this, and why I suggest it’s not about “the answer,” though of course you need a good one to survive this catastrophe. The situation before you is even bigger than that, I think.

Macrointelligence, or Orienting Yourself in a Destabilized World

It is crucial that you answer these questions—what will be left in the next five years of Macroinstitutions—for yourself. 

That is what I call Macrointelligence. And the truth is that without this skill, which is a new one for many, you will not be able to make your way in a world as destabilized as this. Whether it comes to money, finances, career, profession, relationships, life, or just how to function and exist in it very well.

Macrointelligence is what our leaders and organizations lack. The Democrats don’t have it, and so they’re baffled and bewildered by what to even…LOL…do….which is why they’re doing nothing. Boardroom after boardroom hired the wrong guys, who told them Everything Would Be OK, and This Would Never Happen, and they’re in shock, and equally bewildered. And a whole lot of your money managers are telling you, out of sheer bewilderment, to “Just Hold On,” because “It’ll Be Over in a Few Months,” because they don’t have Macrointelligence either (and if they’re telling you that, run away as fast as you can.)

It is absolutely crucial that you develop Macrointelligence now. It is how I am, or at least a a part of, so accurate at predicting what happens next. I have good Macrointelligence, and that’s not because I was born with it, it’s because over time I developed it, using just the kinds of thinking in the framework I’ve taught you above.

If you develop Macrointelligence, you will be able to anticipate what happens next. In a destabilized world, it’s kind of the Ultimate Survival Skill, really. You can use it to figure out where to go, why, what to do, even how to invest, and so on. But without it, you will always be at the mercy of those destabilizing the world, like the Dems, like boardrooms, like Wall St, and so on.

So I’ve tried to teach you this skill here, a little bit. Sit with it. Reflect on what I’ve taught you. Consider your answers to the Macroinstitutional questions, and how you see them falling, crumbling, or holding up, maybe, and over what time horizon. Just let your intuition guide you, because Macrointelligence isn’t about spreadsheets, it’s about thinking things through in a deep and sophisticated way, using all the parts of you, your unconscious, your conscious, your hidden knowledge, your Early Warning System, the symbolic messages your gut is always sending you.

Develop this skill. Start now. Practice it every day. A year from now, you will be different from the rest. You won’t be Sinking With the Ship.

Be careful. Reach out to me if you have any questions. I teach you this stuff because I care about you guys. Please understand that I am trying to guide you for that reason. We are now in the acute phase of an historic global event. Do not underestimate how “bad things can get,” as Macroinstitutions crumble—that is what Macrointelligence is for.

Lots of love,

Umair (and Snowy!)

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