Havens, or How to Think About Life and the World Now

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Hi! How’s everyone? Hanging in there, I hope. Welcome back old friends, welcome new ones, and thanks to all.

I’m going to continue responding to your questions, in specific. Today, we’re going to tackle a theme, maybe the Big One. Now what? What are we supposed to do?

I’ve been thinking long and hard about that.

I’m going to introduce to you the beginnings of my answer, by way of a concept. Havens.

The world is now counting down. We are in the inevitable sequence of stagnation, depression, isolationism, and expansionism. The age of democracy is now drawing to a close, imploding at 10% a decade. We’ve discussed all this at length. If history is any guide, all this culminates where it did the last couple of times civilization entered this sequence. That is in the ashes of World War.

This isn’t about whether you “believe” it or not. It’s about how much risk you want to take. Some people have wasted their lives bickering with me, and along the way, they’ve lost their economies, countries, futures, societies, and now their democracies. I don’t suggest you join them. 

So.

Havens, or Life in a World Going Haywire

I suggest that this concept is a way to think about structuring your life in an age of collapse. It will help you order your thinking, clarify your decisions, and make hard choices.

In an age where things are falling apart, we are all going to have to find Havens.

As things crumble around us, those of us who find Havens will minimize their exposure, and go on living decent, civilized, and maybe even happy and prosperous lives. The rest are going to suffer immensely, and I say that with regret and sadness.

A guide to life now should be structured rigorously around Havens.

And there are many kinds, so while It sounds simple, as we’re going to discuss, it gets deep.

What is a Haven?

A Haven is what it sound like. It’s a form, element of life, that offers you security, stability, and maybe even prosperity, in a world going haywire.

There are many kinds of Havens, I’ve understood, as I’ve used this concept to structure how I think about the world now.

You might think of a place, and we’ll come back to that. The simplest example, and the most relevant for many of you, isn’t that—let’s begin with the textbook example of a financial “safe haven.”In easier times, we can seek security in the forms of stocks or bonds that offer little risk. In the 60s and 70s, the prime examples were GE and IBM, in the 80s, industrial stocks of various forms, in the 90s, finance, etcetera. 

So that’s one form of a Haven.

But when I say Havens, plural, and I say that life is going to be structured around them now, I mean many different forms.

Let’s go through a few.

Some places are going to be Havens. They are going to offer people security and stability in a world going haywire, and in fact, wiser nations will build brands on that, inviting talented and industrious people on. They might not quite know that yet, but this will be key to what we call “nation branding” and “national strategy” in the years to come very quickly now.

So you can think of what Havens you should find in this sense. Countries, cities, towns. Of course, we’re all limited in where we can go. But the point of Haven-level thinking isn’t to panic and flee.

It’s to have a plan.

So when we discuss this element of Havens, the physical kind, immediately, there’s another lesson Haven level thinking. Planning. Already, the point isn’t to just “pick a place and go,” rather, it’s to have a list of possibilities, explore them, and have backup plans and redundancies. See the difference?

In the same way that when we discuss financial “safe havens” we’re not putting about all our eggs in one basket, good Haven level thinking is about multiple elements, across the many kinds of Havens. 

In the case of where you should be, it’s about making a thoughtful list of places that want to be Havens. Because they realize, or will shortly enough, that it’s the wisest strategy for a place in an age of ruin.

See how different this way of thinking already is?

So. Let’s talk about another form of Haven now. Many people are running away from a certain online space these days, and going to another one. What are they looking for? A Haven. We’re all looking for Havens now, whether we know it or not. But wiser minds are going to structure their lives around them.

We spend a great, great deal of our lives online. So I’m not saying shut down your whatever account. But I am saying that you should think about that aspect of your life in terms of Havens, too. 

A list of 3-5. This is a principle of Haven level thinking. You don’t need more than that. Assets, places online, less than that physically, and so on and so forth. But you do need at least that many, not just for the sake of variety, but for the sakes of redundancy, risk management, and backup planning. And you must choose those wisely, meaning, such decisions should be elements that want to be Havens.

Let’s take another aspect of life. What else can be a Haven? The organizations we’re a part of. So when you think about your career, too, Haven level thinking is a very different way to go about it. Does this company or whatever agency you’re working for, or want to work for—the question isn’t just “is is a safe port in a storm, right now”, it’s: does it want to be a Haven, over the next decade plus?

But organizations that we’re a part of are bigger even that that, our professional lives. Civic life means we’re all parts of organizations, formally or informally. Clubs, groups, networks. These, too, should be chosen with Haven level thinking in mind. Are they going to offer you security and stability? If they don’t, cut them ruthlessly, and join those that do. Think long and hard about what forms of organization now offer you these, professional and personally, and then get to work being part of them.

Structuring Your Life Around Haven Level Thinking

We’ve discussed several kinds of Havens.

Now let’s make a short list.

—Physical havens, cities, countries, towns, etcetera

—Financial havens, stocks, bonds, currencies, assets

—Professional havens, organizations, jobs, careers

—Personal havens, groups, networks, affiliations

There are many more. And we’ll continue to delve into them. I just highlight these so we can now begin to do some proper Haven level thinking.

The way that good Haven level thinking works is to think about these various dimensions of life. And then begin to make a list, or a map, or a plan—you can call it whatever you want. As you do, the following principles should be employed.

—Along each dimension, list at least 3-5 possibilities, and do more if you can

—If you do that, you already have a rich, rich list of Havens—maybe 40 or 50

—That you can begin to structure your life and your choices around

Next comes something like the strategy part. That means ranking the choices above, and actually making decisions. You don’t have to do that, and you shouldn’t do that, instantaneously. This isn’t about panicking. This is about planning.

That’s the work, I’d say, of months, easily a year, if you do it well, and think about it carefully. This isn’t just intellectual work or theory, by the way. It’s experiential. You are going to have to try different possibilities. Not just on paper, but by living them, and whether that means visiting places, or changing up your portfolio, or altering your career and personal life—that part’s up to you.

The plan is something that comes together slowly, as you experience some of these different choices, and reflect on them.

Does all that make sense?

I think that it’s a very, very different way to think about the world and life now. And I think it should be a powerful one. At least I hope it is.

(Making A Paradigm Shift to) Haven Level Thinking

Now let’s discuss Havens in a formal sense, because all the above is maybe too concrete, for once, LOL.

What is a Haven? Before, I said, it’s an element of life that offers you stability and security in a world going haywire. 

Let’s formalize that a little bit, because I think the most crucial thing here is that you have a good mental model of Haven level thinking.

Havens are assets.

In economics, we think of assets of many different kinds. Not just financial ones, though obviously those are crucial. There are also social assets, aka relationships. Nations have assets like natural capital, or nature, and intellectual capital, or ideas and creativity. People, too, have assets like emotional capital, or maturity and confidence, and human capital, education and industriousness. On and on the list goes.

Havens are assets in a world that is becoming a liability.

What is really going on out there? Beyond the narrow lens of this election or that one, this poor leader or that one, this failed institution or that one, what’s happening is that our world is becoming a liability. 

Think about the way that we’ve blown past our “carbon budget.” From nature’s point of view, our entire civilization is a liability. Think of the way that societies are making incredibly poor decisions, and blowing up their futures. They are a liability to themselves. Think of the way that people around are destabilizing, and you can’t quite know if they’re on a hair trigger, or they just want to erase your existence entirely. They’re becoming a liability.

You must develop assets in a world that’s becoming a liability.

Wiser nations and wiser organizations are already getting this. The world’s best run corporations, for example, are already employing the equivalent of Haven level thinking. They’re not planning in the old terms, this quarter or that one—but for the next decade or three, making big, big decision about decarbonizing supply chains, insulating themselves from geopolitical folly, walling off their key people, and so on. The world’s smartest nations are already beginning to position themselves as the places that won’t go haywire in a world falling apart.

They’re understanding Haven level thinking in these formal terms. They are trying to keep what assets they have alive and growing. The rest, though, don’t. They are turning assets into liabilities at a fairly shocking scale—think of the way that, for example, America’s debt has skyrocketed. Or think of the way that poor leaders emerge, another form of liability, a liability in human and intellectual capital, and think of the way desperate, foolish people choose them, which turns it all into a liability in political and social capital.

Havens are assets. Real ones. Real assets don’t just offer you a quick buck. They minimize your risk, and allow you to grow along with them. But to do that, you must stick with them for the long term, too. Just as people need Havens, so Havens need people, of a certain kind, at least, intelligent, thoughtful, and non-predatory ones. There is a complementarity at work. Assets, too, become liabilities if they are not tended, and consumed instead.

That is why Haven level thinking is different.

Tell me if that helps you. I think it should, and I hope it does. Forget about the noise. That is what it is. This happened today, that happened yesterday. Doesn’t matter. You must think in much bigger terms now, about the path we’re on, where history teaches us it ends, and how to find Havens, now, while you can.

A Note About You, Me, and Havens

In the comments, Erin asked me if I’d do a personal consultation. 

If you guys like Haven level thinking, and you want me to help you make your own plans, sure, we can try it. I’d need enough of you to want to do it, because I’d need to put some of my corporate work on hold to make it work. I suppose the point would be just bringing the above to life, since one of things that’s different about Haven level thinking is that everyone’s plan or strategy is their own, and nobody’s is really the same as anyone else’s.

If you want to, email me, and I’ll gauge whether there’s enough to make it work as a new little business model. It’s not going to be cheap, but it’s not going to be like super expensive, probably, I don’t know, and this depends, but let’s say the rate of a therapist.

If it doesn’t work that way, that’s OK. We’ll discuss a lot more about it in the coming days and months, because like I said. I’m tired of warning. What’s the point, LOL, at this point? Now we find ways to get our acts together, because pretty clearly, the writing’s on the wall.

Many thanks to all of you, and here’s a big hug from me and Snowy!

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